The Past is Prologue: Makonnen Araya (MA) - Master of Arts

11. November 2011 by Assimba.

By Obo Arada Shawl

 

November 11, 20011

 

Introduction

Makonnen Araya wrote a book. It is not fiction, it is not novel and it is not either an autobiography of the author. The book is titled “Negotiating A Lion’s Share of Freedom: Adventures of an Idealist Caught up in Ethiopian Civil War – A Memoir” In my opinion, it is far more than a memoir of an individual but of communities and societies of Revolutionary Eathiopia. This article is not about review of the book, it is rather a reminder for all Eathiopians in the Diasporas.

 

Since there are no authentic books authored by the founders or the inheritors of these Liberation Fronts, parties or organizations, I am deeply worried that most of the works the struggles and the achievements we all have made will soon be irrelevant if not fictional. Besides, many new book writers are emerging with no qualm of finding the true stories and histories of generations of Revolutionary Eathiopians. The unsung heroes and heroines have become irrelevant whether by design or by chance. Currently Eathiopian heroes and heroines are those who can sing and dance to the tune of political and financial power holders as opposed to those involved in politics or civic struggle for Eathiopian people. Is this a tragedy or comedy for people who have seen it all?

 

Is there a common factor for Eathiopian Fronts, Governments, Parties and Organizations? The answer to this question is far deeper than my capacity to understand for all AREDV[1] Eathiopians seem to aspire either to lead or to follow instead of meeting and negotiating among themselves.

 

My own experience on Eathiopian leaders and followers forces me to reveal the image of EPLF, TPLF and EPRP in terms of the following plays and books:-

• EPLF matches with Shakespeare’s famous play of Hamlet – a struggle of a hero to defeat two opposing forces namely, moral integrity and the need to avenge his father’s murder.
• TPLF matches with 1984 of George Orwell’s book depicting on the dark vision of the future. George Orwell, on his deathbed has written a chilling depiction of how the power of the state could come to dominate the lives of individual through cultural conditioning.
• EPRP matches with the life of Pi. The life of Pi aka Piscine Militor Patel is a story of survival for 227 days on a lifeboat in the Pacific Ocean. P. M. Patel was sixteen years old when he was confronted with science, religion of Hinduism, Islam and Catholicism.

 

Reading Hamlet, GO 1984 and the life story of Pi along with Ato Makonnen’s memoir may hold an answer to the question of “is there a common factor for Eathiopian Fronts, governments, political parties and civic organizations?” These four books should be prologue to our future Eathiopia.

 

Makonnen Araya: Master of Arts

The book is about an attorney (unlike Dr. Bereket H. Sellassie”s book: a lawyer turned into rebel) who joined a Revolutionary army of youths that went to the countryside of Ethiopia to be educated from the peasants’ life style, to teach their children about civics and above all to explain the antiquity of Feudalism, the character of Ethiopian reactionary Bureaucracy and the danger of the rising of local fascism also known as the DERG..

 

The title of Negotiating a lion’s share of freedom; adventures of an idealist caught up in Ethiopian Civil War has been written There are 81 letters and 16 words. But that is too much for a title but the writer’s intent is perhaps to teach the readers about each day of the week. He presented his memoir for discussion and therapeutic purposes.

1. Monday - NEGOTIATION versus Arbitration or Mediation
2. Tuesday - PERSONAL versus Public or Professional
3.  Wednesday - FREEDOM versus Liberation
4. Thursday - ADVENTURE versus Revolution
5. Friday - IDEALISM versus Realism or Materialism
6. Saturday - CIVIL versus Military
7. Sunday - WAR versus Peace

 

The book, apart from tantalizing, down to earth; is full of truth without much fanfare and eulogy for the dead and the living of EPRP/A members or associates.

 

Ato Makonnen wrote it in a way that relates to him for nobody knows his own life and activities better than in his mind and heart. Ato Makonnen was both a private and a public person at the same time. Privately, he negotiated his way from being fugitive, refugee and asylum, onto America.  Public for he was an educator, revolutionary and a mediator. He was in fact the Barac Obama of Eathiopia. On page 174, he told us he became a teacher, social organizer, a mediator and an administrator all at the same time. Incidentally he flew straight to Illinois Chicago. A design or coincidence!

 

Concluding Remarks

 

The book has no dedication and no reference. It is unusual for a book. Personally, it is everyone’s story and must be read and reread.

 

Moreover, the attorney for National Bank of Ethiopia, turned into anthropology, specializing in cultural anthropology. I want to tell a story about the social science such as psychology, anthropology and sociology. Back in the 1960’s, there was no interest or encouragement to study Ethiopian by Ethiopians, Levine, Shack, Sumner and Punk rust were all foreigners. Eathiopians were not meant to be studied at least scientifically for they have melted in a melting pot via experience without emigration.

 

This book is the beginning of writing about Ethiopians by Eathiopians based on primary source and I hope many will come out of EPRP/A members, associates or supporters to write their own story. Writing books without references or research will help neither our people nor country. Many books are being written mostly based on hearsay, innuendoes and assumptions.

 

It will be easy for MA’s book to be praised and become a bestseller book. MA tells a social history of both unique and strikingly honest, the life of many Eathiopians. MA did not include in his memoir his growing up and his education but started straight from being a fugitive into a revolutionary fighter, a refugee in the Sudan and a political asylum in the USA. I presume he wanted to teach us first things first – I come before We without denying that we comes before I when the time and the space warrants.

 

The fascinating and illuminating true memoir of Makonnen Araya focuses on the life of peasants in Tigrai, Wollo, and Begemdir provinces and the daunting task of his comrades in arms to survive and make sense of the dehumanizing situation in which he finds himself. Everything Makonnen has encountered was vividly detailed making his narrative story easy to read but supremely uneasy to imagine for young Eathiopian readers.

 

I wish the TPLF and EPLF began to write their personal stories as Ato Makonnen’s has done. It will save the nation of Eathiopia from degradation and humiliation.

 

Bravo Ato Makonnen Araya MA –Master of Arts. I hope you will raise your MA into PhD – Doctor of philosophy.

 

As always TRUTH WILL PREVAIL

 

For comments and questions

woldetewolde@yahoo.com

---

[1]  A for Asylum

   R for Refugee

   E for Education

   DV for lottery

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Why Ethiopians Must Unite: part four (a) of five. By Aklog Birara, PhD

11. November 2011 by Assimba.

In part three of this series, I indicated that there are major social and economic hurdles ordinary Ethiopians face each day that should compel Ethiopian opposition groups within and outside the country and the rest of us to make is their singular business to advance the cause of unity and stop bickering among themselves ad infinitum. More than any single factor, it is their quarrelsome behaviors and actions and their divisions that prolong the agony of the Ethiopian people. The lives and wellbeing of ordinary Ethiopians are not improving at all. In some critical areas such as incomes, inequality, graft and corruption, concentration of wealth, education, health, shelter, sanitation and employment things are getting worse.  Hyperinflation continues unabated; and the governing party is in no position to contain this havoc. It is its own creation and some folks actually benefit from substantial rises in the cost of living and from shortages. There is a growing perception among ordinary Ethiopians that the Diaspora aggravates the problem.

My argument for unity is straight forward. It is the moral obligation of anyone and everyone who believes in Ethiopia and in the Ethiopian people to do the opposite of what the TPLF/EPRDF regime does so effectively to the Ethiopian people: divide and rule.  All indicators show that there a huge disconnect between what top officials of the governing party say and what they do to alleviate the problems ordinary Ethiopians face. So, those who believe that Ethiopians are not being served by their government have no excuse not to close ranks and work for the same goals. For example, high ethnic officials show greater dedication for and commitment to their ethnic bases than they do to the entire country and its diverse population. When and if it suits them, they show affinity to Ethiopia and tend to appeal to the Ethiopian people as a whole, for example with regard to the financing of the Renaissance Dam.  This duality is calculated to serve a strategic and not a national purpose. It is part of divide and rule and part of keeping the society in permanent suspense.

 The strategy of divide and rule and keeping the society in permanent suspense operate together because political and social actors who oppose the system have yet to wake up from their slumber and work relentlessly and consistently in support of the vast majority of the Ethiopian people who seek justice, fair play, equality and opportunity now and not decades from now.  Division within the opposition camp is a major source of strength for the governing party. Those who want political pluralism must recognize that Ethiopia is theirs to save and the Ethiopian people are their responsibilities to defend. They must accept the notion that Ethiopia belongs to all of them; and that its shame is equally their shame. I refer to continued poverty, hunger, illiteracy and disease that afflict millions. Ethiopia is still identified as “one of the hungriest and unhealthiest nations on this planet.” It is still poor and technologically backward despite US billions of dollars of aid that continues to pour into the pockets of a few. Aid is now contributing not only to the acquisition of higher incomes and wealth for the few; but is also to regional disparities and repression.  More billions of foreign aid will not transform the Ethiopian economy. Only empowered Ethiopians can improve their lives and the status of the country.

Why is Ethiopia still poor?

Ethiopia has been and continues to be the world’s experimental laboratory in development in general and poverty alleviation in particular. For the aid business, this experimentation will continue because donors serve their own national interests first, and would not care if Ethiopia’s poverty persists for decades to come. A weak, dependent and hungry Ethiopia generates business for many in the aid community. There is no altruism. The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) that assumed political power in 1991 has benefitted substantially from increase aid that now exceeds more than US$3 billion a year, US$ 1 billion coming from the United States, the largest bilateral donor. Today, Ethiopia is the largest aid recipient in Sub-Saharan Africa and the fourth largest in the world, after Afghanistan, Iraq and Indonesia. If aid would move a country from abject poverty to sustainable and equitable development, Ethiopia would have achieved it by now. Donors pump in billions without measuring impact on the ground; and without a sense of who ultimately benefits from Western taxpayer dollars. There is no accountability to the Ethiopian people. The case of agricultural production tells the disastrous and ineffective nature of aid in the country. Donors ignore prerequisites such land tenure reform, a pro-poor and private sector regulatory framework, voice and participation, the rule of law and so on that will make aid at least more effective.

There is no reason for Ethiopians to go hungry. The country possesses ample natural and human resources including “arable land for crop and animal farming,” and water resources that are the envy of many countries such as Egypt and the Sudan. Ethiopia is the ‘water tower of Africa.’ Yet, irrigated agriculture is among the least developed and accounts for only 1 percent of farming.  Massive aid, substantial remittances estimated by an internal World Bank study at US$3.5 billion per annum, millions of hectares of fertile and irrigable lands and huge human capital have not made a dent on the country’s intractable poverty. Opponents of the regime have immense data in their hands to shame the regime now and not a decade from now. But, they need to speak with one voice and pull in the same direction.

The UNDP estimates that illicit outflow of funds under the current regime is in excess of US$8.345 billion. Last year, Global Financial Integrity estimated that illicit outflow from Ethiopia amount to US$11 billion. The Prime Minister conceded that a few privileged Ethiopians have US$2 billion in foreign banks. Aid contributes these forms of plunder and scandalous activities. Most of Ethiopia’s pervasive aid comes from Western sources. Those in the Diaspora can and should challenge whether or not these donors live up to their own values of freedom, empowerment, free enterprise and the evolution of a robust domestic private sector in granting generous monies to a repressive, discriminatory and corrupt governing elite. Massive corruption and illicit outflow from one of the poorest and aid dependent countries in the world can be challenged using available and credible data.

Although estimates vary from country to country, experts say that more than 30 percent of foreign aid is ‘stolen’ through a variety of contractual and other schemes. Where does the money go is a legitimate question to pose. More than 87 percent of Ethiopians rely heavily on agriculture and related activities to sustain life. Yet, only an estimated 17 percent of agricultural produce is marketed properly. Only 17 percent of the country is urbanized. There are more than 7 million orphans.  Unemployment among youth is among the highest in the world. Ethiopia’s largest export is labor, with hundreds of thousands immigrating to all corners of the world, especially to the Middle East.

In countries that are nationalistic and all inclusive, education serves as a ticket out of poverty. In Ethiopia today, education does not necessarily lead to jobs. In development, the lead and primary responsibility of any government is to feed and shelter its population. In Ethiopia, this is not the case. The East Asian and Pacific region miracle countries such as Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, and increasingly emerging economies such as Bangladesh, China, India, and successful economies in Africa such as Botswana, Mauritius, Cape Verde, Ghana and others invested and still invest heavily in agriculture. Most recently, the government of Ghana secured US$100 million in soft loans from the World Bank to invest into agriculture in the North. This investment will offer job and income generating opportunities to thousands of Ghanaian youth.

A hungry and unhealthy population cannot produce. It is for the same reason that these and other successful economies invest heavily into quality primary, secondary and tertiary education and into comprehensive and quality health care. The Ethiopian government tells donors that it has trained thousands of health extension personnel. It says the same thing about agricultural services. Indicators show that health services are among the least developed in the world. The small island nation of Seychelles avails quality health services to the remotest village. India overcame recurring famine by investing heavily in agriculture (the Green Revolution) to which aid contributed. The government made substantial investments in the fertilizer industry so that farmers would have adequate access to nationally produced fertilizers.

China’s agriculture and rural sectors were transformed by the Chinese themselves without much aid from outside. This structural transformation eliminated recurring famine and hunger and improved wellbeing substantially. It is for this reason that I continue to suggest that a ‘Green’ type of smallholder based revolution is the single most important transformer of economic and social life in Ethiopia. It will have the greatest impact on the greatest number of people and would remove one of the sources of shame for all of us. Would the TPLF/EPRDF regime invest heavily into a smallholder revolution and release the productive potential of Ethiopian farmers and others in the rural sector? Would the aid community insist that the Ethiopian government changes policies to advance the cause of sustainable and equitable development? I doubt it. The poor are easier to control and to manipulate that the well to do. There is no evidence that it is either willing or capable of introducing radical reforms that will make poor people owners of assets such as lands. Believe it  or not, high officials of the government argue that Ethiopia will achieve food self-sufficiency and security by farming out millions of hectares of its most fertile lands and water basins to foreign governments,  firms and individuals from 36 countries, and to a few domestic allies all affiliated to the TPLF. As the Prime Minister noted a few months ago, gradually foreign firms are “taking hold of the pillars of the national economy” and Ethiopians face the risk of losing these pillars and losing their country. The systemic causes and linkages emanate from single party and endowment dominance of the pillars of the economy. The TPLF created and sponsored conglomerate EFFORT that controls at least 30 diverse enterprises, and the Saudi and Gulf States sponsored and financed conglomerate MEDROC group managed by Sheikh Al Amoudi controls 30 other large and diverse enterprises. Combine these monopolies and deduct the implications. They literally crowd-out the rest of Ethiopians. This is among the reasons why the national domestic private sector is among the weakest in Africa. There is nothing on the horizon to change the roles of these monopolies.

In a recent Al-Jazeera sponsored debate on land grab, a prominent Indian economist said that “foreigners have more power and influence than Ethiopians in their own home country.” Granting Ethiopian waters and fertile farmlands to foreign interests instead of raising the capabilities of Ethiopian smallholders and encouraging nationals to invest in commercial agriculture takes away the key sources of comparative advantage the country and its population possess. Foreign owned large scale commercial farms will not transform Ethiopian society for the better. As designed, they will make Ethiopian society more dependent and more vulnerable than ever before. For details, I urge the reader to read my latest book, The Great Land Giveaway: yemeret neteka ena kirimit in Ethiopia.

Contradicting Ethiopian government officials, including the Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister–who pronounced, on a visit to India, that smallholder farming is inefficient, and ineffective–most foreign experts and multilateral agencies such as the World Bank argue that:

i)                 Smallholder farms are more productive than large-scale commercial farms;

ii)                400 million farms around the globe, with less than one ha of land, are in a position to double or triple their harvest.  In Punjab, India, smallholders raised their output from one ton per ha to 4-5 tons per ha after the introduction and wide-spread use of Green revolution that transformed Indian agriculture forever.  Indian firms are among the “new farmland colonizers” in Ethiopia at the invitation of the government. They want to secure foods for Indian consumers and are planning ahead to secure food security. Who is thinking of future generations of Ethiopians and their food security?

iii)               Next door in Kenya where smallholder based farming is developed, 27 tractors are deployed per 100 SQ km of arable land; in Ethiopia, only 2 tractors per 100 SQ km.  The governing party is only interested in securing wealth for its core and allies and in maintaining power. Just reflect on what top officials, including the Prime Minister tell the world. ‘Inflation is common in growth economies. There is no famine; only hunger’ and so on. They justify that which cannot be defended statistically. Inflation will be minimal if productivity increases. Hunger will be history if agricultural productivity was the norm and not the exception. The Ethiopian government’s priority is to meet the basic needs of the population and not to enrich itself and its supporters.

“Smallholder-based productivity growth is the most leveraged pathway by which we can address poverty reduction,” says Prabhu Pingali, a leading agricultural expert who also criticizes land grab. In its seminal report on food aid and dependency in Ethiopia, Oxfam noted that “Food aid is not the best way to alleviate poverty.” Rather, the best way is to boost the capabilities of Ethiopian smallholders. Heavy investment in a smallholder revolution in Ethiopia is therefore a smart policy for any government that is dedicated to the country and its diverse population. The benefits are two-fold: it reduces poverty and increases incomes; and eliminates under-nutrition or malnutrition from which millions suffer. Consumers will have access to cheaper food. Farmers with more incomes will afford to send their children to school. Mothers will afford to seek medical treatment.  Instability and insecurity will ease.

The government will generate more revenues. Eliminating or at least mitigating the sources of drought–that India and others have done successfully—is smart public policy for another reason.  According to Oxfam, drought costs Ethiopia US$1.1 billion per year, an amount that exceeds government investments in agriculture, and USAID to Ethiopia. Investments in smallholder farming by removing the policy, structural and input hurdles that keep the poor in their place and the country on a low level agricultural productivity track is responsible governance. The cause to the tragedy is not nature but poor and repressive governance that alienates the population from ‘their government’ and its institutions.

Take a look at global surveys and conclusions.  In recent surveys by the Gallop Poll, the Legatum Prosperity Index, Freedom House and the Wall Street Journal as well as assessments by the World Bank and the IMF, it is clear that the governing party is totally detached from the population: it does not serve them at all. The vast majority do not trust their government, its leaders and institutions. Only 30 percent of those surveyed approve what the government is doing. Only 21 percent are convinced or are satisfied that the government is doing anything and everything meaningful to address their problems. Only 19 percent believe that the governing party respects free and fair elections. This is why the country is ranked 101^st in the administration of the rule of law without which sustainable and equitable development is unthinkable. Application of the rule is fundamental in advancing opportunity.

In the 21^st century, no country can achieve sustainable and equitable development without quality education that leads to jobs and business creating opportunities. In the 2011 UN Human Development Index, Ethiopia ranks 107^th, an absolute failure for a poor country that the regime claims is growing by leaps and bounds each year for several years. No single country can aspire to join middle income status without allowing the power of information technology such as mobile phones, the Internet, television and other media that unleash the productive potential of its population, especially girls and other youth. There are 5 mobile phones for 100 people.  Only 29 percent of the population has access to sanitation and only 7.5 percent to safe drinking water. At only 0.4 percent, access to electricity is a luxury in Ethiopia as is access to good shelter. Access to financial and banking institutions is only a dream for most. Thirty-three percent have to walk 20 km to access the closet bank. Chronic unemployment is taken as a way of life. Twenty-one percent of the population is unemployed. Some people will never dream to hold a job in their lifetime. They may be born poor and may die poor.

More than 5 million people depend on remittances to survive and to perhaps to enjoy luxuries such as mobile phones that they would obtain otherwise. What about the rest who have no relatives abroad or are not connected to the ruling party for sheer survival?

The structure of the economy is stuck. Small enterprises are the largest employers in the so-called modern private sector, with an estimated 29,083 enterprises according to government statistics. Of these, 93 percent are grain-mills. Can you imagine transforming the structure of the economy with grain-mills? Indigenous production of traditional clothes, metal based supplies, medicines and others are shunned instead of coveted, protected, further developed and modernized as national resources, Most are forced to give way to imported substitutes. It is as if products and services of Ethiopian origin have little or no value at all. Nationally oriented governments give attention to and protect indigenous products and give them prominence. The government of Namibia is a prime example in protecting indigenous culture, products, natural resources and peoples. It has gone further than any by incorporating environmental laws in its national constitution. Namibia consists of different nationality or ethnic groups who have decided to live with one another as Namibians. They interact with one another as Namibians and accept Namibia as their common country.  They protect their environment for future generations. There is no evidence whatsoever that the Ethiopian government does this. Remember, Namibia is one the newest African countries; and Ethiopia the oldest. Can the governing party explain why it allows foreign governments and businesses to destroy the remaining forests and misuse scarce and precious water resources, for example, to produce flowers for export while Ethiopians go hungry each day?  Deforestation continues at alarming rate of 88,000 ha per year. One of the “hungriest and unhealthiest countries in the world” is at the same time one of the few countries in the world whose government is not protecting the environment.

In the 2011 Legatum Prosperity Index, Ethiopia is in the bottom 3 of 110 countries surveyed in terms of per capita income and wellbeing along with the Central African Republic (CAR) and Zimbabwe. Citizens with low incomes cannot buy what they need to survive. They cannot afford to buy medicine or to build homes. Despite its huge population, Ethiopia ranks 76^th in market size because there is no broad economic participation in the economy. Wealth and incomes are highly skewed and concentrated. In a country that heavily ethnicized through the kilil system, the domestic market and economy are fractured. Lack of market integration associated with lack of national cohesion is costly to the economy and to entrepreneurs. The cost of doing business is among the highest in the world because of ethnic division, market fragmentation, collusion, administrative and state capture corruption. This is why someone in Addis Ababa characterizes Ethiopia as a country that resembles a “person who travels in the darkness of night not knowing where he is going.”

All foreign visitors to Ethiopia are alarmed by the gaping differences in incomes, wealth and wellbeing between the small political, economic and social elite that wield political power and the vast majority of the population that is poor. Ethiopia ranks 20^th out of 110 countries surveyed. Similar to this Legatum finding, Mo Ibrahim places the country 35^th out of 53 African countries. The 2011 UN Human Development Index that ranks Ethiopia 174^th out of 187 countries is consistent with other surveys. This survey is more significant in that it covers wealth and incomes, education, life expectancy, health and sanitation, shelter and other basic needs. A key element in this multidimensional survey is gross inequality between those who have and those who do not; between who can eat and those who cannot; between those who are employed and those who have no access to opportunities; between those who benefit from growth and those who are left out. “Ethiopia’s HDI is 0.363 which gives the country a rank of 174 out of 187 countries with comparable data.” Human development index for Sub-Saharan African countries increased from 0.365 in 1980 to 0.463 in 2011 while it declined in Ethiopia, placing it below the regional average. In other words, Ethiopians are worse off than the rest of Africans.

This begs the question: where is the evidence that growth has benefitted most Ethiopians? There is no evidence and the UN Human Development Index is the best evidence one can offer to prove the point.

Part four is divided into two sections for ease of reading a technical piece. Part four (b) of five will discuss the relationships and distinctions between growth and development, the perceptions of the Diaspora who travel back and forth to Ethiopia; and seven critical hurdles Ethiopian society faces today.

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Why Ethiopians must unite Part three of five.

1. November 2011 by Assimba.

By Aklog Birara, PhD

“In addition to its complete dominance of local and national government institutions, a number of large businesses are linked to the ruling party, either directly or through family members.”

Human Rights Watch and Center for Strategic and International Studies

In connection with the global concern about the rise of the world’s population to 7 billion on October 31, 2011 and the projection of 9 billion by 2050, James Eng, Chief Editor of MSNBC, one of America’s leading news organizations, asked me along with other global experts to share my views on whether this growth is “a cause for celebration or concern.” I should like the reader to understand that it can be one or the other depending on how a society with high population growth is governed. China is the most populous country in the world today. Its population is not a curse but a blessing for one simple economic and social reason. It has overcome the structural and policy sources of famine, hunger and destitution. It is the most dynamic economy in the world today, transforming the rural economy and integrating it with the rest. Close to 674 million Chinese or 50.3 percent of the population live and work in rural areas; but they do not starve. Close to 83 percent of Ethiopians live in rural areas; most of them go hungry. Millions starve. Whether one supports or opposes the regime, one cannot deny the fact that, today; farmers are unable to feed their families three meals a day. In Eastern and Southern parts of the country, those able to feed their children at least two meals a day find it harder and harder to offer one meal per day.

Contrast rural and urban lives

In China, millions move out of rural areas to urban areas. They have job opportunities, and incomes are three times higher. In Ethiopia the poor who move to urban areas remain poor. There are no jobs that offer higher incomes. The poor remain poor regardless of location. In contrast, in China, fewer and fewer farmers produce more and earn more from less land because of improvements in technology and other inputs. As rural incomes rise, the income gap between the rural and urban population narrows. In Ethiopia, the average rural farm size is less than half ha, and technology and other inputs have remained “biblical.” The policy and structure remain the same.

Whether rural or urban the poor are least likely to challenge a repressive regime than those with jobs, and higher and better incomes. Jobs and better incomes embolden and empower citizens. There are clear indications that, even in China, rising incomes and job security embolden Chinese citizens to demand more and more accountability from their government. This is a virtuous cycle that does not exist in Ethiopia. In almost all countries, virtuous economic and social cycles tend to contribute to greater freedom in the long run. Economic and social stagnation and repression go hand in hand.

Believe or not, it was not long ago that China suffered from recurring famine and hunger. One can say the same about India and others. China is by no means democratic. However, the political leadership is nationalist and has overcome one of the sources of national shame, namely famine and hunger. India is democratic. Although there is widespread poverty, there is no famine and debilitating hunger that characterized India before the “Green Revolution.” Population size is no longer a curse in any of the two or in Bangladesh and others that are developing faster and that have given special attention to the agricultural sector and smallholder revolutions in one form or another.

It is the health and wellbeing of individuals, families and the entire society that determines the extent to which population growth is a source of concern or a source of celebration. This is the reason for my thesis in the MSNBC piece that the single most important contribution that the global aid business that has poured in billions of dollars into the Ethiopian economy over the past two decades could have and could still make is to channel most of these resources into an Ethiopian smallholder farming or green revolution.

I argued in my latest book, “The Great Land Giveaway: yemeret neteka ena kirimit” in Ethiopia, that the TPLF/EPRDF regime failed miserably by not removing the policy and structural hurdles that keep the country among the “hungriest and unhealthiest in the world,” and the urban and rural population as among the poorest. Poor and repressive political and socioeconomic governance censures or restricts freedom and empowerment regardless of geographical location, ethnicity, religion or demography. For the regime, rise in population is just a number and not a potential source of growth and development. It does not see the potential that comes from empowering the poor to become both consumers and producers. Repression and control keep the poor and the rest in their place. As the Guardian Co. UK put it, “In Ethiopia, the threat of imprisonment for political journalists (and political dissenters whether rural or urban) is constant.” Here is the problem in simple terms.

Silencing those who demand economic justice will not remove famine, hunger and destitution whether the population is 90 million (today) and reaches 278 million by 2050. What will solve the problem is political and socioeconomic freedom that allows ordinary citizens to demand justice and to hold their government leaders accountable for their actions. Let me give you one example to illustrate why it is so critical for all opposition groups–whether political or civic–to work toward a common goal and action; and to speak with a single voice. Yemeret neteka ena kirimit abrogates many principles, among them citizenship and ownership of natural resource assets by Ethiopians. In a recent debate on Al-Jazeera, a leading Indian Economist noted that transfer of land resources to foreigners would have led to public outrage in India. Indian companies are among the lead land grabbers in Ethiopia, with Gambella, Beni-Shangul Gumuz and Oromia at the center. These companies are literally free to do as they wish: produce and export even to third parties while Ethiopians go hungry. They can destroy the environment as they wish. They can divert and use water as they wish.

Do not forget land giveaway is water giveaway

 Huge land giveaways to business interests from 36 countries and to a selected few domestic allies are done at a huger cost to future generations of Ethiopians. Remember that these giveaways do not occur in an economic, social, political and financial vacuum. Someone benefits and someone else loses. Foreign investors make billions. They take hold of Ethiopia’s water sources for up to 100 years renewable.

I show the multidimensional and severe nature of the problem in my 478 page book with close to 150 references. It is the book that prompted MSNBC to ask me for views on population growth. Fortunately, there are many experts who see the danger of land grab in Ethiopia. The Indian economist mentioned earlier made several points that Ethiopians should note and do something about. Among these is the empty rhetoric on the part of the Ethiopian governing party that large-scale commercial farms owned by foreigners for periods ranging from “50 to 99 years” would “transfer technology, generate employment, lead to food self-sufficiency and security and raise incomes of the poor.” The expert suggested that none of these is true. What would lead to sustainable and equitable growth in agriculture is to empower smallholders and to remove the policy and structural hurdles that keep their productivity low and that perpetuate insecurity.

The fact that the new economic actors in land grab are non-traditional colonialists does not make them any different. They serve only their business, financial and national interests and not the interests of the Ethiopian poor or the country. The Arab world that includes Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt has always been interested in controlling the sources of the Nile. The Saudis are doing it through Sheikh Al-Amoudi who controls 30 different conglomerates in the country.

This travesty that emanates from almost permanent transfer of Ethiopian water basins and fertile farmlands from Ethiopian to foreigners alone should embolden Ethiopians within and outside the country to reject the governing party’s economic and social model. It is essentially disempowering and dis-enabling. The Indian economist said something that each of us should keep in mind. If these kinds of transfers took place in India, people would revolt against their government leaders and throw them out of office.

A closer look at land grab will amplify the story. When one looks at it from the perspective of millions of Ethiopians who are land poor and landless, famine-prone and hungry, these massive transfers of water basins and farmlands and other pillars of the economy to foreign governments and businesses compel each of us to reflect more closely as to ‘Why unity of purpose and action is critical and urgent.’

The country should have achieved food security and food self-sufficiency close to 21 years of massive foreign aid. Instead of empowering smallholders and other Ethiopians, the governing party invited 36 foreign governments and more than 8,000 applicants from investors to take over millions of hectares of the most fertile farmlands and water basins. This is effective transfer of ownership from Ethiopians to the likes of Karuturi of India and Saudi Star of Saudi Arabia and undermines both sovereignty and citizenship.

Water and land transfers affect sovereignty and citizenship

The primary responsibility of any government in the world is to feed its population. For this to occur, a government must adopt sound, pro-poor and sustainable and equitable development policies and programs. Investments and foreign aid that do not correspond to these fundamental requirements will not work and have not worked in Ethiopia. Growth and the use of foreign aid are highly politicized and favor the merged party, ethnic elites and the state. This is why nepotism, discrimination, exclusion, corruption and illicit outflow of foreign exchange and money-making assets flow out of the country. In 2009, 22 percent of Ethiopians depended on international emergency food aid to survive. Today, the governing party admits that there is drought but not famine or hunger. The top leadership of the governing party differentiates who is to live and who is to die on the basis of political, ideological and ethnic criteria. This is what makes it heartless and soulless. Do not take my word for it. Just take a look at the Ogaden and other parts of the country where children and women are dying and judge. The contradictions that exist in terms of fairness, justice and equity are legendary. The simplest measurement is the condition of life for individuals and families on the ground.

In countries that used to be called “banana republics (Central America and the Caribbean) and natural resource curse nations (many Sub-Saharan African countries),” elites in power squandered natural resources at the expense of their populations. Yemeret neteka ena kirimit in Ethiopia does practically the same. Waters and farmlands are equivalent to or better than petroleum and gas, diamond and gold, bananas and fruits and so on. Ethiopia’s waters and farmlands are potential sources of riches and must be protected from the plunder that emanates from unguided and unregulated globalization and foreign direct investments; as well as political and economic elite capture. Just remember the millions of Ethiopian youth who need opportunities: jobs, new and income enhancing opportunities including commercial farms. Why should they allow transfer of these resources to the Saudis, Indians, Egyptians, Pakistanis, Turks and others? Would these nations and nationals allow the reverse? Not in your dreams.

Massive transfers of water basins and fertile farmlands from Ethiopians to foreigners and domestic loyalists–all done in the name of development–do threaten sovereignty, citizenship, and the future of millions of Ethiopian youth as well as the environment. They make inhabitants aliens in their own country; they make them more vulnerable. They disempower the poor and drive them to urban areas where there are no alternatives for employment. In this sense too, the Ethiopian developmental state is not at all an empowering but controlling state. In contrast, the Chinese and Vietnamese or Brazilian developmental state creates the conditions to release the productive potential of all citizens. Here is my overall conclusion. Mismanagement and misallocation of natural resources subverts the future. It is distortions in national economic and social policy that makes the so-called developmental state in Ethiopia self-serving and opportunistic. Gaining immediate cash in the form of foreign exchange and riches for the few will, inevitably, lead to uneven development and will aggravate income disparities, corruption and diversion of resources.

The Ethiopian people and especially its youthful population that constitutes more than 50 percent–40 million of whom were born after the TPLF/EPRDF took political power in 1991–deserve better and empowering and freedom enhancing governance.

Knowledge is critical in the pursuit of change

Much, perhaps much too much, has been said about how bad things are for the vast majority under the TPLF/EPRDF. No day passes that someone, somewhere and somehow does not reveal the horrific untold stories of the authoritarian core that leads the country. I like to make a cautionary note though. One, let us pin down the reasons why change is necessary and for whom? Two, let us conduct serious soul searching on why opponents are incapable of setting aside minor differences to create strong and sustainable coalitions and partnerships. Here, I admit that all of us have failed to identify the reasons why the opposition camp–civil or political–outside the country is still in disarray. It seems to me that the primary reason is that we are not guided by the needs of the country and the population consistently.

I do not write these articles for the sake of writing. There are many other things that I can do. My intent is to provide analytical tools for those within the opposition camp within and outside the country who believe in one common cause, one country and for a unified and diverse population whose hopes and aspirations for justice, freedom and opportunity are similar regardless of ethnic or religious affiliation.

The moral imperative that should give us all sleepless nights is not simply to know and appreciate indescribable poverty, disempowerment and hopelessness, repression and persecution done one by one relentlessly, but to respond to this crisis in meaningful and substantive ways. We cannot do that unless we equip ourselves with knowledge and information that is credible and incontestable. Equally, no amount of knowledge or information can lead or contribute to change unless it leads to action. We saw and still see in North Africa and the Middle East–even here among youth who protest against Wall Street—that action requires collaboration and teamwork. The first step seems simple to non-Ethiopians but complex for Ethiopian elites. This is to set aside differences and make the needs of the Ethiopian people central and foremost in our thinking and actions.

Some skeptics may continue to believe the story line of the top the top leadership of the governing party and its allies that the regime is on the verge of creating the next ‘Singapore’ or another Tiger in Africa. I wish this was the case. It is not and cannot be. A Tiger like economy cannot be created without wide-spread participation of citizens and without a dynamic domestic private sector owned and managed by Ethiopians from diverse backgrounds. If it has not managed to achieve food self-sufficiency and security in 20 years, how would it transform the national economy into middle-income (MIC) status in the next five?

Before I close Party three of this series, I will pose a simple question for all of us to ponder. ‘Why does Ethiopia remain poor after an estimated US$40 to US$50 billion in all forms of foreign aid (official and unofficial) since 1991?’  I will give you my take. Ethiopia remains poor because of un-caring, cruel, repressive, discriminatory, non-participatory, unaccountable and exclusionary governance.

In part four, I shall provide a few global measurements used by reputable research, multilateral and other firms to firm-up the above thesis. These measurements will present one simple pattern: a graphic picture of poverty in a country that should not be poor. You can read and rationalize the reasons and express cynicism about the persistence of poverty and dependency. You can make this piece or anyone’s piece on the subject a one evening conversation with family and friends. You can cry in your homes, as do numerous foreigners-who visit Ethiopia, and express outrage as they witness the grossest inequality and ‘indescribable’ poverty they had ever seen-in the privacy of their hotels (Bill Easterly’s The White-man’s burden). You can also choose to let your voice and indignation known in partnership with others. This is the meaning of collaboration for a bigger cause.

In part five, I intend to propose a set of recommendations or a framework to stimulate conversation that will, hopefully, lead to concerted action in support of individuals and groups within Ethiopia who sacrifice their lives and their families in defense of justice, freedom, equality, peace and national reconciliation. I genuinely believe that the Diaspora’s contribution will depend entirely on whether or not its active support is sustainable and is anchored in the Ethiopian people, especially its youth, and in the country’s future.

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