26. October 2011 by Assimba.

By Yelfiwos Wondaya

Knowing the fact that the so-called Ethiopian constitution is framed by an ethnocentric dictatorial regime to serve its narrow purpose, one would not expect to see it working for all parties on board, much less to preserve Ethiopia’s unity and territorial integrity intact. Although mentioned in the constitution still the TPLF is not willing to comply with its own rule of law. At will, though the TPLF undermines the basic substances mentioned in its own fake constitution one of which is a common platform in which both parties [the regime and the oppositions] could be able to build an agreement to settle a difference of opinion in a way that is acceptable to all. Worst of all, its constitution does not promote unity, equality, fraternity and social justice for all to take root in Ethiopia. So in this case, one would conclude that not merely a regime change or reform per se but a revolution that must be played out by the genuine parties and the public at large. Thus in order to turn the popular revolution into a success, one would also conclude that the objective condition at hand needs to acquire the following important continuities, a society that defies all orders from Mele’s tyrant regime, unity, organization, leadership, and outside factors that would influence Ethiopians in a positive and uplifted ways.

Firstly, though Ethiopians openly resisted the regime in the past but the resistances were not conducted in a cohesive manner as a result have been crashed and suppressed by the regime one at a time. After all, “a house divided against itself cannot stand” often times than not, however, students in Addis, Mekele, Jimma and other higher learning institutions were striking but not collectively in a cohesive manner, which is why also they did not get anywhere, and also Christian worshipers in Gondar, Muslims in Addis and then, the youths together with the general public came out in thousands to oppose the election result of 2005, during which time over 35 thousands people locked up in prison and were subjected to pain, and suffering from torture and continue to languishing in woyanes’ top-security prisons allover. At the same time, some 200 people were gun down by the regime’s police and secret agents and the rest had been chased, harassed and intimidated by non other than the agents themselves. In unison, though there were about three million people came out in Addis to oppose the regime but were dispersed non other than by the so-called opposition leaders in 2005. Potentially though such pattern of events are positive indications for one to confirm that we have indeed a defying society in Ethiopia. With that in mind, Ethiopians have a reason to believe that there is a meeting place both for the public and the genuine political groupings to join forces and carry out a collective form of protest against the regime. And in due time, the said form of actions will set off a chain of events and shall bring about a full fledged revolution in Ethiopia. Collectively though the revolution requires an effective leadership that can promote a pragmatic course of action in a bid to liberate the country from the yoke of tyranny.

Secondly, the question of leadership is vital. In order to mobilize the public and prepare forces for actions the movement requires a leadership, a leadership to frame and formulate slogans, tactics, catchphrases, and strategies that have an immediate impact on the movement. And also leadership is vital to coordinate the movements ahead and produce more leaders that would organize the ordinary people of cities, towns, and villages across the nation. Leaders of all ranks are also required to distribute flyers, leaflets and other promotional materials to their own respective regions and locals on a timely fashion. In such a way leaders of all ranks can control and coordinate various activates through out the nation. Once the question of leadership is resolved, the rest is possible to change the no-win situation around and move on to the next level where waging a pragmatic form of action is possible. And then again, move on to the next level where our superior moral truth dominates enemy’s position and brings about the downfall of our last few rivals in power. In short, the task of leadership is to coordinate, guide, and direct the revolution and further influence the youths and the elderly to join the protest against their common enemy the TPLF that is. So, at this critical time, an action oriented political entity capable of providing the public with an effective leadership is highly required to appear into the political arena in order to topple Mele’s regime and rescue the victory on the horizon. Indeed, a leadership envisaging and contemplating a future ahead, a leadership that has a firm hold on the public’s imagination has to come forward to assume a new role of leadership to lead the revolution.

Thirdly, the question of unity is vital too. Although the task of leadership falls upon the entire organizations, coalitions and alliances it takes an initiative of individuals to determine whether or not the organizations function effectively, and upon their functioning depends on the determination and the commitment of members of different ranks and beyond. The society on the other hand is the sea in which individuals, organizations and associations are brought to shore. Together, all of whom are parts and parcels of the shore and of the wave of the sea in which more leaders will emerge from within to coordinate further the different functions and resources into a one pathway forward. In such a way, leaders could let numerous citizens involve at will and bring their contributions to the coherent form of action in place. Isn’t that a challenge for us all, and a test of time to preserve the genesis and the progression of our revolution and its success story ahead? After all, “United we stand divided we fall” unity is power! Unity together with firepower is even more vital to blow the enemy at hand. If not right, Might is absolutely essential for us to survive my fellow Ethiopians. In all fairness, might is the answer for an upper hand: as lip service is for an empty technique of rhetoric. “Actions speak louder than words” Taken as a whole, the popular insurrection of Ethiopian people is prone to generate more of pragmatic actions ahead. And then, the unity together with the said leadership would share a great deal of experiences with foreign movements that are already successful and what not, would carefully apply it in a ways it would help the movements go forward

Fourthly, the wind of change blowing from the North and the shock wave it sends toward the south may well have positive impact on Ethiopians’ situation as a whole. If not decisive, it is an encouraging factor for Ethiopians’ situation to get ahead of time and use it before hand to weaken our enemy. It also helps them feel emotionally and intellectually attached to the movement and their comrades in arm in a positive and uplifted ways, it helps leaders utilize their natural talents and to convey optimism and send that down the line with a message that conveys strength and security for all on the ground. It indeed gives them morale boost especially, when they see that the opinions of the world powers are changed in favor of the winning situations in Tunisia, Egypt etc. Be that as it may, the groundbreaking revolution in Ethiopia is imminent although Meles will try his best to appease it by massacring the people indiscriminately or what have you. Despite the pain and injuries his excessive force might have inflicted, he will not make it this time. Much like those dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, etc, Mele’s will lose grip of power and leave on the backdoor without any traces. The Tunisians and Egyptians have done it so will Ethiopians so long as they are determined in terms of moving forward in a full force to defend their human and constitutional rights in the open. And then, much like Egyptians and others, Ethiopians’ uprising will enjoy the support of democratic countries and international communities across the world. And then, the WOYANES’ deceptive and distorted information that had been systematically spreading to confuse the international community will be silenced at the end. For that to happen, the Mass Medias of all oppositions are expected to convey a coordinated message against Mele’s press and get in the way to frustrate his military and other forces on the ground as well. And then, the friendly press together with general public would make it clear even clearer to that of our defectors and collaborators not to taking side with the dying regime and more. Those false prophets aside, however, the foremost duty of all genuine Ethiopian political and civic organizations is to depose the TPLF/EPRDF and replace its ethnocentric regime with a democratic system of government. Clearly, this is the central theme as is a dividing wall separated us from the enemy. The TPLF/ EPRDF together with those fortified collaborators that are relentlessly reinforcing its political muscle must be condemned permanently to the fire of hell.

Lastly, we are at a time when we need to make our choices not only to condemn the regime but also to have the courage to defy and let the blast blew the dictator off! And of course, winning the war against all odds is the choice and the goal of moral forces as opposed to losers that are in battle for evil deeds. Victors Vs. losers. If there is anything in between of these two forces it should be nothing but belongs to those who are neglected and left in oblivion during the course of this watershed time in our history. History is in the making and the positive aspect of all this is that victory is inevitable so long as we are determined to keep on struggling in spite of obstacles and so long as the movement is led by an experienced and well competent leadership. In the aftermath, however, the said leadership will find itself in a position where the vast majority of the people are awaiting in the wings to cast their vote to it given that friendship is the product of privileged circumstances and authentic victories and hardly ever any enemy thereafter.

In conclusion, a competent leadership together with a defying society, unity, and organization is ultimately needed to make our national struggle a success in terms of changing Meles’ ethnocentric philosophy together with his an ethnic oriented federal system. So much so, such continuities as competent leadership, a defying society, united forces and organizations will also be the resources to found some broadly based transitional government in Addis, which in turn, will frame a constitution that paves a way to broadly representative government, and allows parties of all persuasions to freely participate in the upcoming political system and equally permits different professional and civic associations, to join or choose political organizations of their own choices.

Enachenifalen!!

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26. October 2011 by Assimba.

 Aklog Birara, PhD
In part one, I provided basic socioeconomic arguments of why unity of purpose and action among opponents of the TPLF/EPRDF is no longer an option for those who wish to see a unified, diverse and prosperous Ethiopia whose institutional foundation is grounded in fundamental principles of human dignity and freedom for the individual to choose, speak, associate and move; in the rule of law and a level playing field for each and all; in genuine equality, justice, fairness, inclusion and participation; and in political pluralism that allows and encourages peaceful competition.

For the above to take roots, the struggle for justice and freedom must be anchored in Ethiopian society, and especially youth, taxi-drivers, shop owners and the rest of the middle class of professionals, bureaucrats and the poor in rural and urban areas. It is these social forces that brought dictatorial regimes to their knees. Those on the outside can provide material, financial, technical and diplomatic support.
These and other lofty principles assume that ultimate power and the authority to determine legitimacy to govern reside with Ethiopian citizens and not with political elites. It is only when the institutional and leadership architecture that empowers ordinary citizens takes solid roots that there would be a respectful relationship between ordinary people, the state and government and the leadership that administer it on their behalf. In this sense, future change must be dramatically different from the past. Ordinary citizens will exercise this potential power through free, fair, transparent, open and competitive elections. This is why it is important to remember that opposition to the governing party is only one and necessary component of change; but not the only component.

Equally important is the ability to envision an appropriate transition toward meaningful and people centered change and to frame the alternative system that will replace the old order. Both the transition and the alternative must reflect the interests of the Ethiopian people as a whole and neither can be an afterthought.
Why people revolt

The ongoing Arab Spring in North Africa and the Middle East exploded because dictatorial and or authoritarian regimes refused to give-up their privileged political and economic positions peacefully. It is the pursuit of economic power and better social status that motivated them to assume political power by any means necessary in the first place. Once they assumed political power that offered them wealth beyond their imagination, they cling to it regardless of costs to any person or to any group. The tolerate greed, nepotism, corruption and exclusion because they created them. It is this that leads experts to conclude that dictatorial regimes encourage and rationalize income inequality and wealth concentration directly or indirectly. It is part of the architecture of running the state as a business enterprise. At most, those with political and economy power are likely to persecute and jail only small fish to appease the public and donors. The big fish at the top are always protected from the regulatory and legal system. It is they created the very system that benefits them and their core allies whether foreign or domestic. It is they that must protect ‘the goose that lays the golden egg,’ so to speak.

Reflect on what social and political forces drove Ethiopia’s Emperor and the dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam out of power in disgrace? What forces compelled Ben Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and his family to flee with an estimated 1.5 tons of gold that belongs to the people of Tunisia? What compelled Mubarak and his cohorts to cause massive carnage and to face the humiliation of court proceedings in the country he ruled for crimes against humanity and for stealing billions of money that belongs to the Egyptian people? Why did Gadhafi and his die-hards refuse to submit to the will of the Libyan people peacefully and get caught, hauled from a sewage pipe, humiliated and killed by liberation fighters as young as 19 years old that he had called “rats”? The manner and brutality and ‘savagery’ of his death will be a subject that will haunt millions of people for decades to come. For Libyans and other people who seek and deserve freedom and justice, saving Gadhafi’s life and subjecting him to the meaning of the rule of law would have sent a better omen. Instead, it sent chills accusations of the opposition itself is “lawless.” This may or may not be unfair. Only the future evolution of governance will tell.

Would other dictators in the rest of Africa including Ethiopia draw lessons from these shameful experiences and allow peaceful change through genuine free, fair, open and competitive elections? Listening to the Ethiopian Prime Minister in the aftermath of what happened in Libya; one concludes that dictators have no ear for human dignity, justice, freedom, equality, the rule of law and accountability. They feel invincible. In light of this, simple indignation will not be adequate.

I highlighted the major similarities and differences that characterize these diverse regimes in previous articles on the Arab Spring. In each case, and in today’s Ethiopia, those who govern failed and still fail to open up opportunities for the vast majority of the population, especially youth. For example, the TPLF/EPRDF regime runs an economic empire that has made a few individuals super rich, and is leading the vast majority to greater depths of poverty. The governing party failed to level the playing field in the economy. Party owned and endowed enterprises such as EFFORT, GUNA and others dominate the national economy. Believe it or not EFFORT owns at least 30 diverse and dominant companies. It started with little or no capital and now serves the economic and social interests of the top leadership of the TPLF and their extended families.
The top leadership of the TPLF/EPRDF is one of the most rigid and dismissal of any in the world. It really believes that its assault on human rights is to protect the public from all forms of “terrorism.” It continues to get away with violations in part because it has powerful Western backers; and in part the opposition is divided and weak. In light of this, the regime failed to hold anyone accountable for atrocities following the 2005 elections; for massacres in Gambella, and in the Ogaden; and jailing and killing an untold number of Ethiopians under the pretext of defending the state and the Constitution. The regime is the judge, jury and executioner. Do not expect it to change any time soon.

Economic and social injustice is widespread and there is nothing the public or dissenters can do about it. Donors and others are stunned of corruption and illicit outflow in excess of US$11 billion from one of the poorest and emergency food aid dependent countries in the world. They will not do anything unless opponents in the Diaspora close ranks and work collaboratively against corruption and illicit outflow in donor capitals everywhere. Corruption is an economic crime against the poor and the future of Ethiopian youth. In North Africa and the Middle East, we note corruption, cronyism, illicit outflow, and other economic and social ills constituted the material reasons of why people continue to die for justice, human dignity and freedom.

Here is the bottom line. People do not revolt out of hate for their fellow man or woman. They revolt out of desperation that the system in which they live is totally broken and that those who govern are not or will not be accountable to them. Escalating food prices, income inequality, corruption, nepotism and massive unemployment were among the material reasons why hundreds of thousands of youth and others revolted against repression, economic and social injustice and inequality. When a system is impervious to change, they have no option. Tunisian youth, professionals and the middle class arrived at the conclusion that the system under which they lived was intolerant of reform. This is similar to Ethiopia but took a more peaceful route. Citizens, especially youth, took matters into their own hands and gave real meaning to citizen voice, participation and popular revolt. The rest is history. Today, 110 political parties are in the process of competing in what is projected to be the freest and fairest election in Tunisia.

For Tunisian, Egyptian, Libyan, Syrian and Yemeni youth, the battle cry could be termed as ‘inequality and corruption stupid.’ Gross inequality in incomes and wealth arise when a system allows economic and social preponderance for one group over the rest, and discriminates deliberately and systematically. Tunisia was and still is more market friendly than Ethiopia. Yet, inequality was pronounced as was corruption. Egypt was worse. Gadhafi and his large family run the country as a family business. He lost his life and perhaps all his wealth and the wealth of his family. Freedom leads to the inevitable demand for accountability. But who in the top echelons of the Ethiopian government party is listening?

In Ethiopia, the economic and social system tends to emulate the worst features of crony capitalism and dictatorial ‘socialism.’ I say the worst features of capitalism because cronyism is rampant. Greed and corruption are widespread and punishing for the society. Humanitarian and other forms of aid are politicized and skew the allocation of resources along ethnic and party lines. If aid that saves lives is distorted, one will have little confidence that the rest of the economy and financial system is not distorted either. Ethiopia is neither farmland nor water resource poor. Yet, it is one of the ‘hungriest and unhealthiest” countries in the world. Take food self-sufficiency and security and investments in agriculture under the so-called Agriculture Development-led Industrialization (ADLI) approach–a strategy intended to boost the capabilities of smallholders and other rural folk–and assess outcomes.

Why did the regime fail to boost the capabilities of smallholders by providing them tenure security? As I document in my latest book, “The Great Land Giveaway: yemeret neteka ena kirmit in Ethiopia,” the country is not able to achieve a level of agricultural productivity per hectare that it had attained in 1973 or 38 years ago? Believe it or not, the governing party no longer believes that Ethiopian smallholders and other domestic entrepreneurs can modernize and commercialize agriculture or anything else for that matter. In 2009, 22 percent of Ethiopia’s rural poor depended on some form of international emergency foreign aid to survive. I conclude from these facts and from skyrocketing food prices that the governing party’s strategy was not to release the productive potential of Ethiopian smallholders and to make the country food self-sufficient. Rather, it was to control the ‘peasantry’ and to make the rural population dependent and an appendage. A pro poor economic and social policy would have resulted in a smallholder Green Revolution in Ethiopia. Generous donors such as USAID, the World Bank and others share the blame in that they did not invest in smallholder commercial farming. Some donors perpetuate dependency by focusing on relief rather than on sustainable and participatory development.

It is a fact that twenty years ago, people could afford to buy food. Today, millions survive on one meal a day. Forty years ago, the educated and others aspired to join the middle class and expected to build and own their own home. Today US$50,000 cannot buy you a decent home in Addis Ababa or other major urban areas. The façade of villas, apartment and office buildings and other construction in Ethiopia’s capital and other urban centers is glitz at its worst. Rent seeking and corrupt culture produced the glitz. Who owns major buildings anyway? Who rents them to foreigners? It certainly is not the Ethiopian middle class. They worry about their next meal. These investments are owned by few powerful individuals, families and monopolies. The direct link between business monopolies and political power is a firm indicator of the merger of party, state and ethnicity. It is this merger that enables the governing party to misallocate national resources; and to transfer waters and farmlands and other pillars of the economy from the Ethiopian people to a selected few domestic allies and to foreign governments and businesses.

These economic and social distortions and adverse impacts on ordinary Ethiopians are essential to grasp in promoting a culture of collaboration and unity among opposition groups whether civic or political; and whether within the country or abroad.

Part three of this series will highlight the dangers that emanate from massive transfers of water basins and farmlands and other pillars of the economy to foreign governments and businesses. The piece will continue to reinforce why unity of purpose and action is critical, urgent and everyone’s business.

*Please note that this series has five and not three parts.

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