Welcome to 2013: FEAR or Freedom?

By Oboaradashawl  January 13, 2013

The Fear part

On this date January 13, 2013, you can watch a TV program on  “Esat Meade Esat Ethiopia” presented by Gelila Makonnen.  The main program is about Tsegaye Gebre Medhin. Who is/are Tsegaye Gebre Medhin? Ask any Ethiopian or Eritrean individual who has been in some sort of schooling. He or she will give you an answer instantly. But his/her answer may not be the right answer i.e. the right personality. If you challenge him/her, there is going to be a war of nerves leading to fear of the unknown. 

Personally I know three individuals by that name. And what is more, they are well known in Eathiopia. Not only they are/were from the environment of the Blue Nile Basin, they are/were versed in Arts, Literature and Religion. The history and culture of Ethiopia has been unified in these three holy alliances. In as much as we believe in the Holy Trinity of God, Eathiopians have also at least in humanity have merged Arts, Literature and Religion. Thus these Trio Tsegayes have created an unholy alliance in the lives of all Abyssinians and non-Abyssinians. The fear of the unknown still persists in Eathiopia. Hoping that some readers will notice, I have written an article about the Tsegayes and I do not wish to write again. The reason I am mentioning these personalities is because of all the days of the month of which I have been submitting articles on every 13th day of the month, I came to see a TV program about the Tsegayes history and picture. I was amazed why it can be. Is it deliberate or by mistake. If it is by mistake, it tells me that a lot of Ethiopians and Eritrean are really confused to what has happened in the forty something years. If the program show has been deliberate, then it is a design to create fear. 

It is no wonder that confusion abounds in the Ethiopian community especially in the artistic works. I don’t blame the EPRDF satellite organizations to believe in ዘር history and culture. There is definitely fear that emanated from confusion of the Arts, Literature and Religion.   It is to be recalled that ten days ago, I have written an article on four professors who have had inputs to the problems of Ethiopia and Eritrea. That was outwardly, i.e. visible to the naked eye. The case of these three Tsegayes is the internal problems i.e. the invisible virus.  The lack of science and technology in Eathiopia has and still creating havoc to community and societies. That is the missing part between the AMMM professors and the three Tsegayes. It is time to bridge the gap via the Econa communication bridge. 

 The Freedom Part  

Years ago, I have written an article predicting or rather forecasting on issues of economic and political cultures. I mean the political culture of Eritrea and the economic culture of Ethiopia. By 2013 Gregorian calendar, the leaders of TPLF will fail in leading Ethiopia and by Julian calendar of 2013; Eritrea and Ethiopia will merge together. Many pundits did not agree with me for the simple reason that my arguments did not hold water. Now, they have a second thought for it looks that the leaders of TPLF are in disarray especially after their sole thinker died a couple of months ago. 

The thinking behind the leaders of TPLF was that poverty was the cause problem and once they solve this poverty, everything will work out smoothly. In fact the deceased Zenawi Legese (prime minister of Ethiopia) boasted of his vision for Ethiopians to have three meals a day. Based on this simple statement and core belief of the TPLF organization, I knew that the real problem of Tigrai province was misdiagnosed. Contrary to the misconceptions of Eritrean elites, the Agame people were not and are not poverty stricken. The propaganda machine which came from Italian legacy has worked into the psychic of many common populace of Ethiopia. But the truth of the matter was that Agame awraja has never been poverty stricken.  

I grew up there when very young and the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Army taught, lived and fought in the area. So we can witness to the meaning of poverty level. What is that then, the TPLF leadership came up with this absurd idea of poverty and to devise construction dams for alleviating their so-called perceived poverty. 

There are two reasons for this situation to understand. The first is the belief of the Agame population in particular and the Tigrai populace in general. And that is the cultural history of climate of Tigrai. Since the climate is Weina Dega (60-70 degrees), there was no need for fear to die of starvation. One can survive with air, water and some food for as long as he/she can. The second reason was based on religious belief that ጥሜት ነይቀትል ዘይ ሸብዳዕዳእ one does not die of hunger but “of state of mind”. The people of Tigrai mostly were Orthodox Christians and there were or still are churches and monasteries everywhere. For the common people virtue and honesty and integrity is of paramount values. They used to believe in life after death. And that by itself is antipoverty. By the time TPLF came to the scene, the world began to change. Liberation theology has begun to creep in. Protestantism which had difficulty to penetrate deep in Ethiopia during the Monarchy era, early 1970, the mentality of the liberators began to change. Some of the Orthodox Christians not only were baptized to Protestantism but to extreme forms of atheism. That was the scenarios for the Tigrai population. 

However, after the TPLF have grabbed power in Addis Ababa, it began to propagate the idea of cash flow –from a peasant economy to a cash economy -. The transformation of economy was formulated and designed by the TPLF leadership and their allies… The whole idea of transformation was based on wrong premises of economic parameters. The former Ethiopian regimes of Haile Sellassie and Menghistu HaileMariam had based their development strategy on foreign exchange. Both regimes had to depend on cash crops of coffee, hides & skins and oil seeds. To an extent they were successful.  

The TPLF regime, however, is heavily depended on loans, sales of fertile land and some grants from all over the globe. The transformation therefore, was prescribed on depleting natural resources and on threats and on false hopes. I am referring in particular to the idea of damming rivers of the Blue Nile and Ghibe Rivers. Both rivers will harm the interests of Ethiopia if carried out the way the TPLF is attempting to construct and to dam both rivers. There are other alternatives research studies how to use the rivers of Ethiopia to the benefit of all Ethiopians. 

That was why I predicted that the collapse of the TPLF at least in its present form will collapse. The current judgment is for the readers.. The mentality of the big fish eats the small fish will not work in Ethiopia. The fabric of social culture will allow neither the Chinese nor the American model of development transformation in Ethiopia. As to Julian calendar of 2013, the politics of Eritrea as being practiced by EPLF will last as long as 2013, i.e. eight years from now. By that year whether the current state of political affairs continues or not either Eritrea or Ethiopia will ask for unity. I have this prediction for the simple reason that both peoples will benefit by becoming one instead of two. That is two nations and one political or economic system is the way out. Besides, the Blue Nile Basin and the Red Sea Corridor are inseparable for the super power strategic purposes. They will certainly create obstacles to disunity contrary to a lot of Ethiopian and Eritrean elites’ understanding. 

Let us hope for the better of the two nations. 2013 is the year we can make preliminary progress if not total resolution.  Truth will prevail.   For questions and concernsoboaradashawl@gmail.com

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